INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE EIGHTH EDITION【2025|PDF|Epub|mobi|kindle电子书版本百度云盘下载】

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1 Management Science1

The Management Science Approach to Problem Solving2

Observation3

Definition of the Problem3

Model Construction3

Model Solution4

Time Out：for Pioneers in Management Science5

Management Science Application：Management Science at Taco Bell6

Implementation7

Model Building：Break-Even Analysis7

Components of Break-Even Analysis7

Cornputing the Break-Even Point8

Graphical Solution9

Sensitivity Analysis10

Computer Solution12

Excel Spreadsheets13

The Excel QM Macro for Spreadsheets14

QM for Windows15

Management Science Modeling Techniques16

Linear Mathematical Programming Techniques16

Probabilistic Techniques17

Network Techniques17

Other Techniques18

Business Usage of Management Science Techniques18

Management Science Application：Management Science at Federal Express19

Management Science Models in Decision Support Systems20

Management Science Application：A Decision Support System for Aluminum Can Production at Coors22

Summary22

References23

Problems23

Case Problems26

2 Linear Programming：Model Formulation and Graphical Solution28

Model Formulation29

A Maximization Model Example29

Time Out：for George B.Dantzig30

Decision Variables30

The Objective Function30

Model Constraints31

Graphical Solutions of Linear Programming Models32

Graphical Solution of a Maximization Model32

Management Sclence Application：Operational Cost Control at Kellogg’s33

The Optimal Solution Point36

The Solution Values38

Slack Variables42

Management Science Application：Estimating Food Nutrient Values at Minnesota’s Nutrition Coordinating Center44

Summary of the Graphical Solution Steps44

A Minimization Model Example45

Decision Variables45

The Objective Function45

Model Constraints46

Graphical Solution of a Minimization Model46

Management Sclence Application：Chemical Production at Monsanto48

Surplus Variables49

Irregular Types of Linear Programming Problems50

Multiple Optimal Solutions50

An Infeasible Problem51

An Unbounded Problem52

Characteristics of Linear Programming Problems53

Properties of Linear Programming Models53

Summary54

References54

Example Problem Solutions54

Problems58

Case Problems66

3 Linear Programming：Computer Solution and Sensitivity Analysis68

Computer Solution69

Excel Spreadsheets69

QM for Windows73

Sensitivity Analysis75

Changes in Obiective Function Coefficients75

Management Science Application：Grape Juice Management at Welch’s77

Objective Function Coefficient Ranges with the Computer80

Changes in Constraint Quantity Values81

Constraint Quantity Values Range with the Computer83

Other Forms of Sensitivity Analysis84

Shadow Prices86

Summary87

References87

Example Problem Solution88

Problems90

Case Problems102

4 Linear Programming：Modeling Examples104

A Product Mix Example105

Decision Variables106

The Objective Function106

Model Constraints106

Model Summary106

Computer Solution with Excel107

Computer Solution with QM for Windows108

Solution Analysis108

A Diet Example109

Decision Variables109

The Objective Function110

Model Constraints110

Model Summary110

Computer Solution with Excel110

Solution Analysis111

An Investment Example112

Management Science Application：The Evolution of the Diet Problem113

Decision Variables113

The Objective Function113

Model Constraints114

Model Summary115

Computer Solution with Excel115

Solution Analysis116

Management Science Application：A Linear Programming Model for Optimal Portfolio Selection at Prudential Securities，Inc.118

A Marketing Example118

Decision Variables119

The Objective Function119

Model Constraints119

Model Summary120

Computer Solution with Excel120

Solution Analysis121

A Transportation Example121

Decision Variables122

The Objective Function123

Model Constraints123

Model Summary123

Computer Solution with Excel124

Solution Analysis124

A Blend Example125

Decision Variables125

The Objective Function126

Model Constraints126

Model Summary127

Computer Solution with Excel127

Solution Analysis128

A Multiperiod Scheduling Example129

Decision Variables129

Management Science Application：Gasoline Blending at Texaco130

The Objective Function130

Model Constraints130

Model Summary131

Computer Solution with Excel131

Solution Analysis132

A Data Envelopment Analysis Example133

Management Science Application：Analyzing Bank Branch Efficiency with DEA134

Decision Variables135

The Objective Function135

Model Constraints135

Model Summary136

Computer Solution with Excel136

Solution Analysis136

Summary137

References138

Example Problem Solution138

Problems140

Case Problems167

5 Integer Programming171

Integer Programming Models172

A Total Integer Model Example172

A 0-1 Integer Model Example173

A Mixed Integer Model Example174

Management Science Application：Allocating Operating Room Time at Toronto’s Mount Sinai Hospital175

Integer Programming Graphical Solution176

Computer Solution of Integer Programming Problems with Excel and QM for Windows178

Solution of the 0-1 Model with Excel178

Time Out：for Ralph E.Gomory179

Solution of the 0-1 Model with QM for Windows179

Management Science Application：Minimizing Color Photographic Paper Waste at Kodak181

Solution of the Total Integer Model with Excel181

Solution of the Mixed Integer Model with Excel182

Solution of the Mixed Integer Model with QM for Windows184

0-1 Integer Programming Modeling Examples185

A Capital Budgeting Example185

Management Science Application：Optimal Assignment of Gymnasts to Events185

A Fixed Charge and Facility Location Example187

A Set Covering Example190

Management Sclence Application：Managing Prototype Vehicle Test Fleets at Ford191

Summary193

References193

Example Problem Solution194

Problems195

Case Problems206

6 Transportation，Transshipment，and Assignment Problems211

The Transportation Model212

Time Out：for Frank L.Hitchcock ana Tjalling C.Koopmans214

Management Science Application：Transporting Sand for Airport Construction Landfill215

Computer Solution of a Transportation Problem215

Computer Solution with Excel215

Computer Solution with Excel QM216

QM for Windows Solution218

The Transshipment Model219

Computer Solution with Excel221

The Assignment Model222

Computer Solution of the Assignment Problem223

Computer Solution with Excel223

Computer Solution with QM for Windows225

Management Science Application：Assigning Managers to Construction Projects226

Summary226

References227

Example Problem Solution227

Problems228

Case Problems251

7 Network Flow Models256

Network Components257

The Shortest Route Problem258

The Shortest Route Solution Approach259

Computer Solution of the Shortest Route Problem with QM for Windows262

Computer Solution of the Shortest Route Problem with Excel263

The Minimal Spanning Tree Problem265

Management Science Application：Reducing Travel Costs at the Defense Contract Management Agency266

The Minimal Spanning Tree Solution Approach267

Computer Solution of the Minimal Spanning Tree Problem with QM for Windows269

The Maximal Flow Problem270

The Maximal Flow Solution Approach270

Time Out：for E.W.Dijkstra，L.R.Ford Jr.，and D.R.Fulkerson271

ManagementScience Application：Improving Service for Yellow Freight System’s Terminal Network272

Computer Solution of the Maximal Flow Problem with QM for Windows273

Computer Solution of the Maximal Flow Problem with Excel274

Summary276

References277

Example Problem Solution277

Problems279

Case Problems295

8 Project Management301

The Elements of Project Management302

The Project Team302

Project Planning303

Time Out for Morgan R.Walker，James E.Kelley Jr.，and D.G.Malcolm304

Project Control304

Project Networks304

The Gantt Chart304

The CPM/PERT Network305

Management Science Application：Project “Magic” at Disney Imagineering306

Concurrent Activities307

Time Out：for Henry Gantt307

The Critical Path308

Activity Scheduling310

Activity Slack312

Probabilistic Activity Times314

Probability Analysis of the Project Network318

Management Science Application：The Mars Pathfinder Project320

CPM/PERT Analysis with QM for Windows321

Activity-on-Node Networks and Microsoft Project321

The AON Network Convention321

Microsoft Project322

Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-Off324

Project Crashing with QM for Windows328

The General Relationship of Time and Cost328

Management Science Application：Kodak’s Advantix Advanced Photo System Project329

Formulating the CPM/PERT Network as a Linear Programming Model330

Solution of the CPM/PERT Linear Programming Model with Excel331

Project Crashing with Linear Programming333

Project Crashing with Excel335

Summary336

References337

Example Problem Solution337

Problems340

Case Problems354

9 Multicriteria Decision Making357

Goal Programming358

Model Formulation358

Labor Goal359

Profit Goal360

Material Goal360

Alternative Forms of Goal Constraints361

Graphical Interpretation of Goal Programming362

Computer Solution of Goal Programming Problems with QM for Windows and Excel365

Management Science Application：Developing Television Advertising Sales Plan at NBC366

QM for Windows366

Excel Spreadsheets367

Time Out：for Abraham Charnes and William W.Cooper 369The Analytical Hierarchy Process372

Management Science Application：Assigning MBA Students to Project Teams at the University of South Carolina373

Pairwise Comparisons374

Developing Preferences Within Criteria375

Ranking the Criteria376

Developing an Overall Ranking377

AHP Consistency378

AHP with Excel Spreadsheets380

Management Science Application：Selecting a Site for a New Ice Hockey Arena with AHP381

Scoring Model384

Scoring Model with Excel Solution385

Summary385

References386

Example Problem Solution386

Problems390

Case Problems414

10 Nonlinear Programming417

Nonlinear Profit Analysis418

Constrained Optimization421

Solution of Nonlinear Programming Problems with Excel424

A Nonlinear Programming Model with Multiple Constraints427

Nonlinear Model Examples429

Facility Location429

Investment Portfolio Selection431

Management Science Application：Gas Production in Australia432

Summary434

References435

Example Problem Solution435

Problems435

Case Problems440

11 Probability and Statistics442

Types of Probability443

Objective Probability443

Subjective Probability444

Fundamentals of Probability445

Management Science Application：Treasure Hunting with Probability and Statistics447

Statistical Independence and Dependence449

Independent Events449

Probability Trees450

The Binomial Distribution450

DependentEvents453

Bayesian Analysis455

Expected Value456

Management Science Application：A Probability Model for Analyzing Coast Guard Patrol Effectiveness458

The Normal Distribution458

Sample Mean and Variance463

The Chi-Square Test for Normality465

Statistical Analysis with Excel468

Summary470

References470

Example Problem Solution470

Problems472

Case Problem479

12 Decision Analysis480

Components of Decision Making481

Decision Making without Probabilities482

Decision-Making Criteria482

The Maximax Criterion482

Management Science Application：Decision Analysis at DuPont483

The Maximin Criterion483

The Minimax Regret Criterion484

The Hurwicz Criterion485

The Equal Likelihood Criterion486

Summary of Criteria Results486

Solution of Decision-Making Problems without Probabilities with QM for Windows487

Decision Making with Probabilities488

Expected Value488

Expected Opportunity Loss489

Solution of Expected Value Problems with QM for Windows490

Solution of Expected Value Problems with Excel and Excel QM490

Expected Value of Perfect Information491

Decision Trees493

Decision Trees with QM for Windows495

Decision Trees with Excel and TreePlan495

Management Science Application：Evaluating Electric Generator Maintenance Schedules with Decision Tree Analysis498

Sequential Decision Trees498

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with QM for Windows501

Sequential Decision Tree Analysis with Excel and TreePlan502

Decision Analysis with Additional Information502

Management Science Application：Decision Analysis in the Electric Power Industry503

Decision Trees with Posterior Probabilities504

Management Science Application：Discount Fare Allocation at American Airlines506

Computing Posterior Probabilities with Tables508

Computing Posterior Probabilities with Excel508

The Expected Value of Sample Information509

Management Science Application：Scheduling Refueling at the Indian Point 3 Nuclear Power Plant510

Utility510

Summary512

References512

Example Problem Solution512

Problems516

Case Problems533

13 Queuing Analysis537

Elements of Waiting Line Analysis538

The Single-Server Waiting Line System539

The Queue Discipline539

Time Out：for Agner Krarup Erlang540

The Calling Population540

TheArrivalRate540

The Service Rate540

The Single-Server Model541

The Effect of Operating Characteristics on Managerial Decisions544

Computer Solution of the Single-Server Model with Excel and Excel QM546

Computer Solution of the Single-Server Model with QM for Windows548

Undefined and Constant Service Times548

Management Science Application：Reducing Arrest-to-Arraignment Times in New York City550

Computer Solution of the Constant Service Time Model with Excel551

Computer Solution of the Undefined and Constant Service Time Models with QM for Windows552

Finite Queue Length552

Management Science Application：Providing Optimal Telephone Order Service at L.L.Bean554

Computer Solution of the Finite Queue Model with Excel554

Computer Solution of the Finite Queue Model with QM for Windows555

Finite Calling Population555

Computer Solution of the Finite Calling Population Model with Excel and Excel QM557

Computer Solution of the Finite Calling Population Model with QM for Windows558

The Multiple-Server Waiting Line558

Computer Solution of the Multiple-Server Model with Excel and Excel QM562

Computer Solution of the Multiple-Server Model with QM for Windows563

Additional Types of Queuing Systems563

Summary564

References565

Example Problem Solution565

Problems566

Case Problems574

14 Simulation576

The Monte Carlo Process577

The Use of Random Numbers577

Management Science Application：Improving the Red Cross Blood Donation Process Using Simulation581

Time Out：for John Von Neumann582

Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets583

Decision Making with Simulation586

Simulation of a Queuing System588

Computer Simulation of the Queuing Example with Excel591

Management Science Application：Simulating the Israeli Army Recruitment Process592

Continuous Probability Distributions593

Simulation of a Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System594

Computer Simulation of the Machine Breakdown Example Using Excel596

Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results598

Crystal Ball600

Simulation of a Profit Analysis Model600

Verification of the Simulation Model608

Areas of Simulation Application608

Queuing609

Inventory Control609

Production and Manufacturing609

Finance609

Marketing609

Public Service Operations609

Environmental and Resource Analysis609

Management Science Application：Simulating a 10-km Race in Boulder，Colorado610

Summary610

References611

Example Problem Solution611

Problems613

Case Problems628

15 Forecasting631

Forecasting Components632

ForecastingMethods633

Time Series Methods634

MovingAverage634

Weighted Moving Average637

Management Science Application：Product Forecasting at Nabisco638

Exponential Smoothing639

Management Science Application：Forecasting CustomerDemand at Taco Bell639

Adjusted Exponential Smoothing642

Linear Tread Line644

Management Science Application：Forecasting Demand for Discount Fares at American Airlines644

Seasonal Adjustments646

Management Science Application：Forecasting Service Calls at Federal Express648

Forecast Accuracy648

Mean Absolute Deviation649

Cumulative Error650

Management Science Application：Demand Forecasting at National Car Rental652

Time Series Forecasting Using Excel653

Computing the Exponential Smoothing Forecast with Excel QM655

Time Series Forecasting Using QM for Windows655

Regression Methods656

Linear Regression657

Correlation658

Management Science Application：Competing withAccurate Daily Demand Forecasts at Vermont Gas Systems660

Regression Analysis with Excel660

Regression Analysis with QM for Windows664

Multiple Regression with Excel665

Summary667

References667

Example Problem Solutions668

Problems670

Case Problems689

16 Inventory Management691

Elements of Inventory Management692

The Role of Inventory692

Demand693

Inventory Costs693

Inventory Control Systems694

Continuous Inventory Systems694

Periodic Inventory Systems695

Time Out：for Ford Harris696

Economic Order Quantity Models696

The Basic EOQ Model696

Carrying Cost697

Ordering Cost699

Total Inventory Cost699

EOQ Analysis over Time701

The EOQ Model with Noninstantaneous Receipt702

The EOQ Model with Shortages705

Management Science Application：Online Inventory Management at IBM708

EOQ Analysis with QM for Windows709

EOQ Analysis with Excel and Excel QM709

Quantity Discounts710

Quantity Discounts with Constant Carrying Costs711

Quantity Discounts with Constant Carrying Costsas a Percentage of Price712

Quantity Discount Model Solution with QM for Windows714

Reorder Point714

Safety Stocks715

Determining Safety Stocks Using Service Levels716

Reorder Point with Variable Demand716

Determining the Reorder Point with Excel717

Reorder Point with Variable Lead Time718

Reorder Point with Variable Demand and Lead Time718

Management Science Application：Establishing Inventory Safety Stocks at Kellogg’s719

Order Quantity for a Periodic Inventory System720

Order Quantity with Variable Demand720

Determining the Order Quantity for the Fixed-Period Model with Excel721

Summary722

References722

Example Problem Solutions722

Problems724

Case Problems731

Appendix A Normal Table733

Appendix B Setting Up and Editing a Spreadsheet735

Titles and Headings735

Borders735

Column Centering736

Deleting and Inserting Rows and Columns736

Decimal Places736

Appendix C The Poisson and Exponential Distributions739

The Poisson Distribution739

The Exponential Distribution740

Solutions to Selected Odd-Numbered Problems741

Glossary749

Index755

Photo Credits763