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1 Patterns in Crime1

Introduction1

Criminology and Criminal Justice1

Criminology2

Descriptive Science2

Formal Logical Science3

Creative Science4

Elements of Criminology: The Empirical Science4

Descriptive Studies of Crime5

Criminal Law5

The Criminal Justice System5

Motivation6

Criminal Justice11

Process Issues11

Content Issues14

Crime Patterns, Criminology, and Criminal Justice19

Criminal politics19

Criminality19

Criminal Justice System19

Criminal Events20

Patterns in Crime20

Chapter Summary21

2 Personal Descriptions of Crime23

Introduction23

Personal Descriptions of Crime24

Memoirs24

Clustered Personal Accounts27

Systematic Observation28

Problems with Personal Accounts of Crime28

Chapter Summary31

3 Criminal Justice System Records of Crime32

Introduction32

Criminal Justice System Structures33

Outlines of the Criminal Justice Systems in England, Canada, and the United States34

Criminal Jurisdiction and Criminal Codes34

Police Organization35

Prosecution and Defense36

Criminal Court Organization36

Correctional System37

Crime Statistics38

Judicial Statistics38

Correctional Statistics39

Police Statistics40

Enumerating Crimes41

Problems with Crime Statistics41

Defining Crime42

Case Filtration43

Problems with Judicial Data44

Definitional Problems44

Information Distortion45

Policy Variations45

Problems with Police Data46

Selection and Categorization46

The Dark Figure of Criminality49

The Dark Figure of Recording51

Additional Technical Problems53

Chapter Summary56

4 Surveys of Crime58

Introduction58

Self-report Studies58

Problems with Self-report Data60

Noncomparability60

Reliability, Validity, and Fair Inference61

Victimization Surveys69

The President's Commission Studies: 1965-196770

The National Crime Survey72

Victimization Surveys in Canada74

Problems with Victimizations Surveys75

Coverage75

Comparability76

Memory Effects79

Validation Problems80

Chapter Summary81

5 Using the Sources of Information About Crime83

Introduction83

Assessing Single-Source Information84

Uniform Crime Reports and Victimization Surveys84

Homicide Statistics84

Intercity Correlations85

Ecological Patterns86

Commercial Crime and Commercial Victimization87

Consistency of Reporting Rates87

Crime Pattern Comparison88

Self-report, Victimization, and Police Statistics88

Police Statistics and Other Criminal Justice Statistics89

Using Multiple-Source Information About Crime90

Chapter Summary92

6 Temporal Analysis of Crime93

Introduction93

Pattern Analysis93

Overall Visual Inspection93

Time-Scale Analysis95

Graphical Analysis96

Graphical Manipulation100

Numerical Analysis102

Basic Time Series Model104

Basic Statistical Techniques107

Regression Analysis of Time Series112

Chapter Summary117

7 Modern Temporal Patterns in Crime119

Introduction119

Trends Since 1960 in the United States, Canada, and England120

The United States120

Canada131

Comparison of U.S. and Canadian Crime Patterns136

England and Wales136

Explanation of Recent Trends139

Demographic Factors140

Economic Factors146

Social Factors149

Opportunity Factors155

Criminal-Justice-System Factors158

Chapter Summary160

8 Long-Term Patterns in Crime161

Introduction161

Data Sources About Historical Crime Patterns161

Long-Term Crime Patterns in England162

Crime in Medieval England162

Crime in Early Modern England: 1550-1700168

Crime in the Eighteenth Century172

Crime in the Nineteenth Century176

Crime in the Twentieth Century177

Long-Term Crime Patterns in America180

Crime in the Seventeenth Century180

Crime in the Eighteenth Century182

Crime in the Nineteenth Century185

Crime in the Twentieth Century188

Long-Term Crime Patterns in Canada191

Crime Trends192

The Crime Mix: 1880-1970195

Long-Term Crime Trends: Approaches to Explanation196

The Decline in English Homicide Rates196

The Long Cycles in Crime199

The Anomalous Canadian Crime Pattern207

Structural Changes and Crime209

Chapter Summary210

9 Spatial Analysis of Crime211

Introduction211

Analysis of Absolute Locations212

Point Data213

Mapping213

Analysis of Relative Locations221

Center of Mass221

Nearest-Neighbor Analysis222

Statistical Analysis224

Problems with Spatial Units224

Ecological Fallacy228

Analysis of Flow Data231

Analysis of Nodes and Routes233

Distance-Decay Modeling237

Gravity-Potential Modeling238

Graph Theory240

Diffusion Modeling243

Spatial Theories244

Macroanalysis245

Mesoanalysis245

Microanalysis247

Chapter Summary249

10 Macrospatial and Mesospatial Patterns in Crime251

Introduction251

The World Crime Pattern in Recent Years251

Explanations for the World Crime Pattern258

Crime Patterns Within Three Common Law Countries261

Regional Studies in the Nineteenth Century261

Regional Crime Patterns in England and Wales265

Regional Crime Patterns in Canada268

Regional Crime Patterns in the United States274

Intermetropolitan Crime Patterns279

City Size and Crime Rates280

Socioeconomic Predictors of Intermetropolitan Crime Patterns285

Chapter Summary295

11 Crime Within Cities297

Introduction297

Historical Intraurban Crime Patterns297

The Rookeries of London298

Crime and Criminal Areas in Nineteenth-Century American Cities301

Intracity Crime Patterns in the Nineteenth Century304

The Social Ecology of Crime: The Chicago Model305

The Chicago Model Applied to Crime: Shaw and McKay307

Erosion of the Zonal Model of Criminal Area Distribution312

Recent Intraurban Crime Patterns319

England and Wales319

Canada326

United States328

Chapter Summary330

12 Microspatial Analysis of Crime332

Introduction332

Environment332

Behavior335

Spatial Behavior336

Basic Model of Target Selection337

Proposition Ⅰ: Multistaged Search Behavior338

Proposition Ⅱ: Cue-Emitting Potential of the Environment340

Proposition Ⅲ: Crime Cues340

Proposition Ⅳ: Template Construction341

Proposition Ⅴ: Relative Endurance of a Crime Template343

Proposition Ⅵ: Limited Number of Templates343

Criminal Spatial Behavior344

Crime Trips344

Distance Perception346

Activity Spaces349

Awareness Spaces352

Formation of an Awareness Space355

Aggregate Criminal-Spatial Behavior355

Cognitive Maps358

Perceived Crime Locations360

Target Distribution: Opportunity Space361

Crime Occurrence Space363

Chapter Summary365

Bibliography367

Index391